HOUSINGAFFORDABILITY
How many families in Russia can buy a standard flat with a mortgage — a calculation you can repeat
In its 2026 report the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences calculated the income a family of three needs to buy a 54 m² flat with a mortgage while spending no more than a third of its income on the payment, and what share of households can manage it. We did not just retell the result — we recalculated the tables with the report’s formula: for 2024 every figure matched to the rouble. Below are the result, a calculator on the same formula, and what did not match.
2024, new-build flats: who can afford 54 m²
Share of households who can afford the purchase at different rates. Russian average, table 6.5 of the report.
Weighted average rate of leading banks (DOM.RF)
Weighted average rate, Bank of Russia data
Family and IT mortgage
Far Eastern mortgage
On the resale market at the market rate a flat was affordable to 15.5 % of households in 2024; across the three periods 14–17%, and 73–76% on subsidised terms.
Calculate it yourself
Formula (5) of the report: the monthly annuity payment divided by the maximum payment-to-income share gives the minimum family income. The share of households is estimated from Rosstat’s income distribution (table 6.4), interpolating within each band.
- Monthly payment
- 55,054 roubles/month
- Required income, family of three
- 165,327 roubles/month
- Required income per person
- 55,109 roubles/month
- Affordability index (100% — income exactly equals the requirement)
- 114.5 %
- Share of households who can afford it
- 42.6 %
By default: Rosstat’s average price per m² for new builds in Russia at the end of 2024 (177,887 roubles) and a 30% down payment. The report does not state these parameters: we found them by reverse calculation, and with them tables 6.5 and 6.8 are reproduced to the rouble. Enter your own price and down payment. Area 54 m², family of three.
The report’s tables
| Rate | Family income, roubles/month | Per person, roubles/month | Index, % | Affordable, % of households |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 %Weighted average rate of leading banks (DOM.RF) | 488,365 | 162,788.5 | 38.8 | < 10 |
| 8.7 %Weighted average rate, Bank of Russia data | 165,327 | 55,108.9 | 114.5 | 42.6 |
| 6 %Family and IT mortgage | 130,101 | 43,367.0 | 145.5 | 54.9 |
| 2 %Far Eastern mortgage | 85,587 | 28,529.0 | 221.1 | 75.0 |
Table 6.5, p. 322 of the report; Rosstat, IEF RAS calculations. We recalculated the table: all 16 figures match.
By region
The same formula for every federal subject: Rosstat prices at the end of 2024, per-capita incomes and the income distribution of the population for 2024. Choose the market, the rate scenario and the district; the table can be sorted.
Average income per person is below the requirement in 5 of 84 regions. Worst: Republic of Crimea (78); best: Nenets Autonomous Okrug (410) (affordability index in brackets, %).
| Required per person, roubles/month | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia as a whole | 177,887 | 63,959 | 55,109 | 116 | 43.2 |
| Republic of CrimeaSouthern Federal District | 160,344 | 38,765 | 49,674 | 78 | 24.8 |
| Altai RepublicSiberian Federal District | 162,633 | 40,630 | 50,383 | 81 | 26.5 |
| SevastopolSouthern Federal District | 178,500 | 44,998 | 55,299 | 81 | 27.0 |
| Tuva RepublicSiberian Federal District | 132,438 | 34,294 | 41,029 | 84 | 28.8 |
| Astrakhan OblastSouthern Federal District | 137,056 | 41,620 | 42,460 | 98 | 36.9 |
| Saint PetersburgNorth-Western Federal District | 276,329 | 87,888 | 85,606 | 103 | 37.1 |
| Zabaykalsky KraiFar Eastern Federal District | 157,925 | 50,738 | 48,925 | 104 | 39.4 |
| Republic of BashkortostanVolga Federal District | 138,186 | 47,220 | 42,810 | 110 | 42.0 |
| Stavropol KraiNorth Caucasian Federal District | 111,938 | 38,344 | 34,678 | 111 | 46.2 |
| Altai KraiSiberian Federal District | 124,478 | 42,745 | 38,563 | 111 | 43.4 |
| Chuvash RepublicVolga Federal District | 116,531 | 40,121 | 36,101 | 111 | 45.1 |
| Republic of TatarstanVolga Federal District | 175,873 | 62,278 | 54,485 | 114 | 43.5 |
| Omsk OblastSiberian Federal District | 135,757 | 48,160 | 42,057 | 115 | 44.0 |
| Republic of KhakassiaSiberian Federal District | 111,886 | 40,582 | 34,662 | 117 | 49.7 |
| Irkutsk OblastSiberian Federal District | 138,054 | 50,291 | 42,769 | 118 | 45.9 |
| Mari El RepublicVolga Federal District | 100,259 | 36,763 | 31,060 | 118 | 48.9 |
| Tomsk OblastSiberian Federal District | 130,403 | 47,848 | 40,398 | 118 | 48.2 |
| Leningrad OblastNorth-Western Federal District | 149,260 | 54,808 | 46,240 | 119 | 47.3 |
| Primorsky KraiFar Eastern Federal District | 176,027 | 64,985 | 54,533 | 119 | 46.6 |
| Republic of MordoviaVolga Federal District | 99,479 | 36,862 | 30,818 | 120 | 48.8 |
| Volgograd OblastSouthern Federal District | 110,680 | 41,803 | 34,288 | 122 | 51.2 |
| Nizhny Novgorod OblastVolga Federal District | 161,018 | 61,278 | 49,883 | 123 | 46.5 |
| Amur OblastFar Eastern Federal District | 164,876 | 64,343 | 51,078 | 126 | 48.1 |
| Kirov OblastVolga Federal District | 113,835 | 44,816 | 35,266 | 127 | 53.4 |
| Moscow OblastCentral Federal District | 196,144 | 77,409 | 60,765 | 127 | 49.7 |
| Republic of BuryatiaFar Eastern Federal District | 111,941 | 44,730 | 34,679 | 129 | 52.5 |
| Samara OblastVolga Federal District | 127,542 | 51,253 | 39,512 | 130 | 52.1 |
| Kemerovo OblastSiberian Federal District | 116,230 | 46,839 | 36,008 | 130 | 53.8 |
| Chelyabinsk OblastUrals Federal District | 118,910 | 48,016 | 36,838 | 130 | 54.0 |
| Saratov OblastVolga Federal District | 94,442 | 38,251 | 29,258 | 131 | 53.3 |
| Perm KraiVolga Federal District | 132,956 | 53,869 | 41,189 | 131 | 51.1 |
| Ulyanovsk OblastVolga Federal District | 105,045 | 42,563 | 32,543 | 131 | 54.8 |
| MoscowCentral Federal District | 352,661 | 143,171 | 109,253 | 131 | ≤ 50.9 |
| Novosibirsk OblastSiberian Federal District | 142,347 | 58,500 | 44,099 | 133 | 51.0 |
| Jewish Autonomous OblastFar Eastern Federal District | 123,540 | 52,015 | 38,272 | 136 | 57.8 |
| Ryazan OblastCentral Federal District | 111,660 | 47,477 | 34,592 | 137 | 55.8 |
| Penza OblastVolga Federal District | 101,432 | 43,388 | 31,423 | 138 | 56.5 |
| Udmurt RepublicVolga Federal District | 110,674 | 47,813 | 34,286 | 139 | 58.5 |
| Kaliningrad OblastNorth-Western Federal District | 123,795 | 53,580 | 38,351 | 140 | 57.1 |
| Kurgan OblastUrals Federal District | 95,733 | 41,494 | 29,658 | 140 | 57.1 |
| Rostov OblastSouthern Federal District | 127,885 | 55,854 | 39,618 | 141 | 54.8 |
| Sverdlovsk OblastUrals Federal District | 146,968 | 64,683 | 45,530 | 142 | 53.5 |
| Krasnodar KraiSouthern Federal District | 147,015 | 64,985 | 45,545 | 143 | 53.2 |
| Khabarovsk KraiFar Eastern Federal District | 153,203 | 67,920 | 47,462 | 143 | 57.6 |
| Republic of AdygeaSouthern Federal District | 116,897 | 52,224 | 36,214 | 144 | 55.0 |
| Krasnoyarsk KraiSiberian Federal District | 131,269 | 59,368 | 40,667 | 146 | 56.2 |
| Vladimir OblastCentral Federal District | 100,766 | 46,302 | 31,217 | 148 | 63.1 |
| Republic of KareliaNorth-Western Federal District | 136,005 | 62,566 | 42,134 | 148 | 60.1 |
| Tula OblastCentral Federal District | 112,798 | 51,931 | 34,944 | 149 | 61.1 |
| Karachay-Cherkess RepublicNorth Caucasian Federal District | 64,950 | 29,960 | 20,121 | 149 | 63.9 |
| Republic of IngushetiaNorth Caucasian Federal District | 58,607 | 27,311 | 18,156 | 150 | 64.5 |
| Kaluga OblastCentral Federal District | 112,381 | 52,675 | 34,815 | 151 | 63.7 |
| Voronezh OblastCentral Federal District | 111,792 | 53,449 | 34,633 | 154 | 60.0 |
| Tver OblastCentral Federal District | 101,173 | 49,121 | 31,343 | 157 | 65.3 |
| Republic of North Ossetia–AlaniaNorth Caucasian Federal District | 83,228 | 40,531 | 25,784 | 157 | 63.1 |
| Republic of KalmykiaSouthern Federal District | 72,288 | 35,438 | 22,395 | 158 | 66.3 |
| Yaroslavl OblastCentral Federal District | 107,825 | 54,027 | 33,404 | 162 | 64.1 |
| Republic of DagestanNorth Caucasian Federal District | 89,424 | 45,175 | 27,703 | 163 | 63.7 |
| Chechen RepublicNorth Caucasian Federal District | 80,385 | 40,797 | 24,903 | 164 | 63.4 |
| Novgorod OblastNorth-Western Federal District | 90,311 | 46,148 | 27,978 | 165 | 67.1 |
| Kursk OblastCentral Federal District | 97,087 | 50,630 | 30,077 | 168 | 67.1 |
| Sakha (Yakutia) RepublicFar Eastern Federal District | 152,534 | 79,768 | 47,255 | 169 | 61.0 |
| Bryansk OblastCentral Federal District | 92,012 | 48,502 | 28,505 | 170 | 67.2 |
| Komi RepublicNorth-Western Federal District | 120,226 | 63,437 | 37,246 | 170 | 65.7 |
| Belgorod OblastCentral Federal District | 106,338 | 56,798 | 32,943 | 172 | 66.9 |
| Orenburg OblastVolga Federal District | 79,520 | 42,812 | 24,635 | 174 | 67.4 |
| Kostroma OblastCentral Federal District | 94,449 | 51,119 | 29,260 | 175 | 69.2 |
| Arkhangelsk Oblast (including autonomous okrugs)North-Western Federal District | 123,482 | 67,383 | 38,254 | 176 | 67.0 |
| Ivanovo OblastCentral Federal District | 87,570 | 47,881 | 27,129 | 176 | 69.6 |
| Tambov OblastCentral Federal District | 83,912 | 46,416 | 25,996 | 179 | 69.9 |
| Vologda OblastNorth-Western Federal District | 89,338 | 51,811 | 27,677 | 187 | 72.6 |
| Smolensk OblastCentral Federal District | 89,094 | 52,435 | 27,601 | 190 | 69.8 |
| Kamchatka KraiFar Eastern Federal District | 161,266 | 96,478 | 49,960 | 193 | 71.5 |
| Lipetsk OblastCentral Federal District | 89,937 | 53,842 | 27,862 | 193 | 71.4 |
| Tyumen Oblast (including autonomous okrugs)Urals Federal District | 132,048 | 79,434 | 40,908 | 194 | 65.3 |
| Oryol OblastCentral Federal District | 90,900 | 54,805 | 28,161 | 195 | 71.4 |
| Pskov OblastNorth-Western Federal District | 74,148 | 46,858 | 22,971 | 204 | 75.9 |
| Sakhalin OblastFar Eastern Federal District | 156,142 | 101,220 | 48,372 | 209 | 71.7 |
| Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – YugraUrals Federal District | 126,782 | 83,038 | 39,277 | 211 | 74.0 |
| Kabardino-Balkar RepublicNorth Caucasian Federal District | 63,116 | 45,587 | 19,553 | 233 | 80.4 |
| Chukotka Autonomous OkrugFar Eastern Federal District | 246,224 | 187,687 | 76,279 | 246 | 74.0 |
| Magadan OblastFar Eastern Federal District | 161,000 | 127,865 | 49,877 | 256 | 79.8 |
| Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous OkrugUrals Federal District | 182,697 | 154,347 | 56,599 | 273 | 75.9 |
| Nenets Autonomous OkrugNorth-Western Federal District | 113,034 | 143,512 | 35,018 | 410 | 89.5 |
| Murmansk OblastNorth-Western Federal District | no data | 86,687 | — | — | — |
Regions shown: 85. Red — index below 100%: average income is less than required.
The parameters are the IEF RAS ones for 2024: 30% down payment, 25-year term, payment no more than 33.3% of income, a 54 m² flat, a family of three. We checked them on the “Russia as a whole” row: they reproduce exactly the figures of tables 6.5 and 6.8 of the report. The index is the region’s per-capita income divided by the requirement; the population share comes from the region’s income distribution, interpolated within each band.
The “≤” sign marks cases where the required income exceeds 100 thousand roubles per person: Rosstat does not split the population by income above that. The share with income over 100 thousand is shown — the real share is smaller.
A scenario applies one rate to every region, so regions are compared on prices and incomes only.
Gaps: Rosstat does not disclose the new-build price for Murmansk Oblast, and the file has no resale prices for Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Arkhangelsk and Tyumen oblasts are shown together with their autonomous okrugs, which are also listed separately. Rosstat publishes data for 85 federal subjects.
A regional average income is not the income in a particular city: prices and incomes are higher in a regional capital than in rural districts. The income distribution is per person but is applied to a family. Rosstat’s 2024 income (63,959 roubles for Russia) was revised after the report, which uses 63,090; so the Russia index in the table is slightly higher than in the report.
- Росстат. Средние цены на первичном рынке жилья, IV квартал 2024 (xlsx)
- Росстат. Средние цены на вторичном рынке жилья, IV квартал 2024 (xlsx)
- Росстат. Среднедушевые денежные доходы населения по субъектам (xlsx)
- Росстат. Регионы России. Социально-экономические показатели 2025, таблица 4.13 (архив)
- Банк России. Средневзвешенные ставки по ипотечным жилищным кредитам по субъектам (xlsx)
What we checked
The formula holds, and we found the parameters the report does not state: for 2024 both tables — new builds and resale — come out to the rouble with Rosstat’s average price at the end of Q4, a 30% down payment, a 25-year term and a 33.3% payment share.
Judging by the recalculation, the IEF RAS treats Rosstat’s top income band (“over 100,000 roubles”) as 100–200 thousand: only with this bound do the published 15.5, 14.2 and 17.3% come out. The report does not state the bound.
In the 2025 tables the leading-banks rate column matches Rosstat’s end-of-quarter price with the same down payment and a 26-year term, but the columns with other rates do not. Their affordability index and household shares follow from the published minimum income. The reason cannot be established from the report’s text.
In tables 6.8–6.10 on the resale market the rows are labelled “on the primary market”. This is a typo in the source: the table titles and the figures refer to the resale market.
What this means for the project
What follows is our reasoning, not the report’s conclusions.
An indicator anyone can repeat
Housing affordability is computed from open Rosstat data and a one-line formula — exactly what we require of the green block indicators. An argument about whether housing is affordable becomes a check of a number.
The national average hides what matters
The report’s calculation uses national average prices and incomes. Below is the same formula for every federal subject: the gap between regions turns out larger than the gap between rates.
The gap between rates is a budget cost
At the market rate a new-build flat is affordable to under 10% of families; with the family mortgage, to more than half. The budget pays the difference: the report puts spending on public debt service and subsidised loans at 5.9 trillion roubles for 2025.
Who pays for infrastructure
The IEF RAS proposes partly relieving developers of the duty to build transport and social infrastructure and subsidising rents (p. 319) — so a smaller part of a flat’s price depends on the rate. For the green block it is the same question: who pays for greenery, and how it shows in the calculation.
Limits of the calculation
This is the Russian average, not a region or city. The income distribution is per person, yet it is applied to a family of three with equal incomes. The formula ignores maternity capital, tax deductions and savings beyond the down payment. The rates are snapshots of 2024–2025.
Sources
Links checked on 13 September 2026. The report is a collective work (52 authors, edited by A. A. Shirov), so it is cited as “IEF RAS, 2026”. The sources are in Russian.